Election(s) time

Well it seems like there are potentially a lot of changes coming on the Provincial scene here in Canada, with I think 6 or 7 elections this fall, and the choosing of a new premier in Alberta, usually more consequential than their elections. The interesting thing is that there are likely a few big changes on the horizon, potentially in Ontario and in Manitoba in particular both of which might go Conservative.

That would feed into the emerging narrative in some circles in which there is an emerging governing coalition in Canada in which the West and Ontario have now become Conservative. This means that it is now possible to govern federally without winning many seats in Quebec.

Although it appeared for a long time that the Progressive Conservatives (yes they still exist provincially in Ontario) were heading towards a victory, the polls have been tightening for a while now and the latest numbers show the Liberals ahead. That would be a big blow to the idea that Ontario has been trending conservative, but we’ll have to await the results to see what happens. It appears to be turning into a close race. I

Recent comments by the Tories about “Foreign workers”, may end up being the wedge issue that allows the Liberals to govern. These comments are despicable and ridiculous. They come after the Liberals announced some funding to employers to hire new immigrants in their fields of study helping them to get their credentials recognized. I was surprised that Hudak even when given the chance, refused to back away from his “foreign workers” line. Playing up the xenophobia in my books is despicable. Foreign workers are different from immigrants, and he should know better.

I think it will be interesting to see how long it takes those commentators like John Ibbitson who write
things like this “What matters most is that Canada appears to have grown out of the era of earth-shaking federal-provincial conflicts. The will to struggle has faded, replaced by the will to accommodate.” See here here. It doesn’t take much to stir the federal provincial pot, and even Ibbitson acknowledges that the 2014 Health Accord negotiations may be somewhat acrimonious.

Federal provincial relations seem good these days because the federal government is withdrawing from many areas of provincial jurisdiction (many in areas of social policy), while concentrating on areas of Federal jurisdiction. We’ll see what kind of things happen though if the National Securities regulator supreme court reference goes the federal government’s way how calm the relations will be, as the federal government moves to occupy an area that arguably should always have been federal, but had been occupied by provinces.

One final challenge I think facing Canada will be in a few years when the federal government emerges from the current economic malaise and finds itself in a more powerful position vis a vis the provinces, especially as Ontario and Quebec face significant challenges on the fiscal and economic front. I think that it will be hard for any government to ignore their challenges, particularly if the federal government is relatively stronger in a few years time.

I think we are in a bit of lull period, where everything seems quiet on the federal-provincial front but one never knows or can predict how things will turn out. If as Ibbitson suggests a Conservative government emerges in Ontario, thing will likely be more difficult, as traditionally the worst relations between Toronto and Ottawa have been when parties of the same stripe are in power.